Experts forecast a 3.5% drop in global grain trade due to shipping problems in the Black Sea

World grain trade in the 2026/27 agricultural year (July-June) will be 505.8 million tons, which is 3.5% less than last year, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) predicts.

As reported in the monthly grain report of the organization, compared to the previous forecast made in September, the new estimate was 3.5 million tons. smaller "This reflects a downward revision of forecasts for wheat and corn exports, due mainly to problems with shipment through the Black Sea and insufficient capacity of alternative transport routes," the report says. "The increase in the forecast for barley trade volumes only partially compensates for lost corn and wheat trade volumes."

Forecasts for corn exports from the EU were lowered due to reduced supply from Ukraine due to logistical difficulties. At the same time, the increase in the export offer in Australia made it possible to increase the forecast for barley trade, a significant part of the additional volume of which will be shipped to China.

The improvement in the forecast for the export of wheat from Kazakhstan did not allow to fully compensate for the decrease in supplies from Russia and Ukraine.

According to the forecast, in the 2026 calendar year, the volume of international rice trade will decrease by 2.2%, moreover, in 2027 this year it can grow by 1.7% to 61.2 million tons. "In 2027, a revival of import demand is forecast in most regions, however, the presence of sufficient internal reserves in the countries of East Asia gives reason to believe that the tendency to reduce their purchase volumes may continue for the third year in a row," the document says. the volume of grain - 2 billion 979 million tons (2.1% less).