In the opinion of the analytical department of the project Fixygen.ua, the adoption in the USA of the law on the structure of the digital asset market, the completion of the regulation of stablecoins, and the further expansion of banks' access to cryptocurrency operations may become the main government decisions capable of positively affecting the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2026.
Analysts JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bitwise call the adoption of the American Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act the most significant potential event. The bill should delineate the powers of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as well as establish federal regulations for the operation of crypto exchanges and token issuers.
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtsoglu previously noted that the adoption of legislation on the structure of the crypto market could be a positive catalyst for digital assets in the second half 2026 year. The law is able to reduce legal risks and facilitate the participation of banks, management companies and other institutional investors in the sector.
Citi strategist Alex Saunders also believes that regulatory changes will stimulate the further spread of cryptocurrencies and the inflow of capital. However, the bank warned that the time frame for passing the law in 2026 is shrinking. The delay in the CLARITY Act has already become one of the reasons for lowering Citi's forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan expects a sharp improvement in market sentiment if a version of the CLARITY Act acceptable to the cryptocurrency industry is passed. According to him, the lack of a final decision preserves uncertainty and forces institutional investors to postpone investments.
As of the end of July, the bill has advanced in the Senate, but it needs the support of some Democrats for final approval. Among the contentious issues remain are rewards to stablecoin owners, anti-money laundering requirements, regulation of decentralized platforms, and restrictions on the participation of high-ranking politicians in cryptocurrency projects.
A second potential catalyst could be the publication of final regulations for the implementation of the GENIUS Act, signed into law in the United States in July 2025.
The law created a federal framework for regulating payment stablecoins, but a number of provisions require additional regulatory acts of the Ministry of Finance, banking regulators and financial monitoring agencies.
On April 1, 2026, the US Department of the Treasury presented the first draft of rules that determine under what conditions the regulation of issuers at the level of individual states can be considered comparable to the federal system. A week later, FinCEN and OFAC proposed anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance requirements.
Publication of final rules could allow banks and payment companies to launch their own stablecoins more quickly, and increase demand for blockchain infrastructure, tokenized assets and digital asset storage services.
Bitwise notes that the volume of tokenized real assets from early 2026 increased by 50.3% to $32.89 billion in 2018. Transactions with stablecoins by estimated volume already exceed the indicators of the Visa payment system by 2.3 times.
The most noticeable positive effect from the completion of regulation of stablecoins can be received by Ethereum, Solana and other networks that are actively used for issuing digital dollars, tokenization of assets and international settlements.
The third possible a positive development will be further clarification of the legal status of certain crypto-assets and staking operations.
SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretation on March 17, 2026, according to which most crypto-assets are not securities in themselves. The document also clarifies the application of legislation to mining, staking, airdrops and reverse tokens.
The next positive step for the market could be formal rules that would allow cryptocurrency companies to determine in advance whether a particular token falls under the control of the SEC or the CFTC.
The further approval of exchange-traded funds that use staking could be a separate catalyst. Such products allow investors not only to gain price exposure to cryptocurrency, but also to participate in the revenues from transaction confirmation.
In 2026, exchange products with staking of Solana, Avalanche, Ethereum and other tokens have already appeared in the USA. The extension of such permits may increase institutional demand, primarily for cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake mechanism.
A fourth potentially positive solution may be the authorization of CFTC-regulated American platforms to organize spot trading of digital goods.
The CFTC Crypto Sprint program is scheduled until August 2026 and provides for the development of regulated spot trading of cryptoassets, the use of stablecoins and tokenized assets as collateral, as well as infrastructure adaptation to 24/7 trading and settlement on the blockchain.
The emergence of regulated spot platforms may attract brokers, banks and professional managers to the market, who are currently limited by internal rules or requirements for counterparties.
It could also reduce the dependence of American investors on foreign trading platforms and increase the liquidity of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other assets that the CFTC will officially classify as digital goods.
A fifth possible catalyst is the further lifting of regulatory restrictions on banks.
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has already confirmed that national banks can provide crypto-asset storage services, buy and sell them on behalf of clients, as well as involve external sub-custodians.
The next step could be a broader harmonization of rules by the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the banking regulators of individual states.
A positive signal for the market will be the issuance of new banking licenses to companies working with digital assets, the launch of cryptocurrency custody services by large banks and the provision of customers access to trade through traditional banking applications.
Such solutions can reduce operational risks for institutional investors and create additional channels of capital inflow into cryptocurrency funds.
Additional support for the market can be provided by the convergence of regulation of digital assets between the US, Great Britain and the European Union.
The US Treasury and the British Treasury presented recommendations on the development of cross-border transactions with digital assets on July 14, 2026. The parties separately supported the expansion of the international circulation of private stablecoins and the reduction of regulatory barriers between the two financial markets.
A positive development may be the mutual recognition of licenses or reserve requirements for stablecoins, which will facilitate the use of digital dollars and pounds in international settlements.
In the European Union, the MiCA regulation has already created a unified licensing system for cryptocurrency companies. Issuance of licenses to major international banks and exchanges can increase the confidence of institutional clients and accelerate the development of the legal market for digital assets.
But the most important regulatory factor for the market in the coming months remains the fate of the CLARITY Act. Its adoption could reduce the likelihood of legal conflicts with regulators and open the US market to more institutional products.
However, a positive effect is not guaranteed. Too strict requirements for DeFi, stablecoins or software developers can limit the development of certain market segments.
Furthermore, even favorable laws do not eliminate the influence of interest rates, geopolitics, liquidity and investor activity. Bitwise notes that in the second quarter of 2026, the index of the largest cryptoassets fell by 15.4%, and US spot Bitcoin-ETFs recorded a record quarterly outflow of funds.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $63,400, Ethereum at around $1,625. Thus, the most positive scenario for the crypto market will be the simultaneous adoption of the CLARITY Act, the completion of the development of rules for stablecoins and the expansion of banks' access to digital assets. These decisions have the potential to reduce regulatory uncertainty, but their impact will depend on the final wording and the state of global financial markets.
