The Information and Analytical Center Experts Club presented a video analysis of the dynamics of wheat cultivation in the world for the period from 1990 to 2026, prepared on the basis of comparative data on wheat production in the main producing countries.
According to the available data, world wheat production in the countries included in the analysis increased from about 591.3 million tons in 1990 to approximately 816.4 million tons in 2026. Thus, over 36 years, the volume of production increased by approximately 225 million tons, or by 38%.
At the same time, the highest indicator in the available data set was recorded in 2025 — about 831.9 million tons. The forecast figure for 2026 is lower — 816.4 million tons, which may indicate a partial correction after the high harvest of the previous year, but the overall long-term trend remains upward.
The Experts Club notes that the video format allows you to clearly trace not only the growth of world wheat production, but also the change in the geography of the main producers. If in the early 1990s the USSR, China, the USA, India, France and Canada were among the largest producers, then in the modern structure the first positions are occupied by China, India, Russia, the USA, France, Canada, Australia, Pakistan and Ukraine.
According to the FAO and According to the USDA, in 1990, the largest volume of wheat production was in the USSR - about 101.9 million tons, China - 98.2 million tons, the USA - 74.3 million tons, India - 49.8 million tons, France - 33.3 million tons, and Canada - 32.1 million tons. The combined share of the ten largest producers was about 77% of the global figure.
In 2026, according to available data, the largest producer of wheat remains China — about 141 million tons. The second place is occupied by India - 121 million tons, the third - Russia - 86 million tons. This is followed by the USA - 42.5 million tons, France - 36 million tons, Canada - 35 million tons, Australia and Pakistan - 30 million tons each, Ukraine - 23 million tons, and Germany - 21.5 million tons. The share of China and India in world wheat production for this period has increased significantly. If in 1990 these two countries accounted for about 25% of world production, then in 2026 it will already exceed 32%. This reflects the long-term strengthening of Asia's role in the global food system.
“Wheat remains one of the basic indicators of food security. Over the past decades, we have seen not only an increase in world production, but also a gradual shift in the centers of agricultural gravity. China and India have become key producers, while the countries of the Black Sea region have significantly strengthened their influence on the international grain market," noted the founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin.
Ukraine plays a special role in the modern structure of production. According to available data, after the emergence of Ukraine as a separate statistical unit in the early 1990s, wheat production amounted to about 19.5 million tons in 1992. In 2021, the indicator reached more than 32 million tons, after which it decreased due to the war, logistical restrictions, mining of territories, changes in the structure of crops and the loss of part of the production potential.
In 2024, wheat production in Ukraine was estimated at approximately 23.4 million tons, in 2025 - 24.1 million tons, and in In 2026, about 23 million tons. Despite the difficult conditions, Ukraine remains among the ten largest producers of wheat in the world and retains strategic importance for the global grain market.
The data also indicate a change in the US position. In 1990, the United States produced over 74 million tons of wheat and was one of the three largest producers in the world. In 2026, their figure is about 42.5 million tons. This does not mean the loss of agricultural potential of the USA in general, but reflects structural changes in agriculture, competition with other crops and a change in the global balance of production.
Russia, which is shown separately in statistics after the collapse of the USSR, has become one of the key producers of wheat in the 21st century. According to available data, its production in 2025 was estimated at approximately 90.3 million tons, and in 2026 - 86 million tons. At the same time, the countries of the former USSR generally remain an important center of world grain production.
"The global wheat market has become much more multipolar. If earlier a few large producers played a key role, now several regions — Asia, North America, Europe, the Black Sea Basin, and Australia — are of critical importance for food stability. Any climatic, logistical or military-political risks in one of these regions quickly affect global prices," Urakin emphasized.
The Experts Club draws attention to the fact that when analyzing wheat, it is important to distinguish between absolute volumes of production, export potential and domestic consumption. China and India are the largest producers, but much of their harvest is used domestically. Instead, Ukraine, Russia, Canada, Australia, the USA and France have a significant impact on the international wheat trade.
Analysts of the center note that the further dynamics of wheat production will depend on several key factors: climatic conditions, access to fertilizers and seeds, the cost of energy carriers, the state of the logistics infrastructure, trade restrictions, war risks and the state policy to support the agricultural sector.
According to the Experts Club assessment, long-term visualization of wheat cultivation indicators allows a better understanding of how the global food system changed after 1990, which countries strengthened their positions and why grain production remains one of the key elements of economic and political security.
