Negative dynamics have been recorded in the economy of Romania

According to Open4Business, Romania's economy shrank by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 according to unadjusted data, while a year earlier the country's GDP showed growth of 0.3%. This is evidenced by the preliminary data of the National Institute of Statistics of Romania (INS), published on September 7.
At the same time, compared to the first quarter of 2026, the volume of GDP has practically not changed. According to seasonally adjusted data, the decline in the second quarter was 2% in annual terms. Thus, it is primarily about the transition of the economy to negative annual dynamics, and not about a new quarterly decline.
According to the results of the first half of 2026, the GDP of Romania decreased by 0.7% compared to January-June last year according to unadjusted data and by 1.6% according to the seasonally adjusted series.
For comparison: in the first half of 2025, the economy of Romania increased by 0.3% in annual terms. In the second quarter of last year, GDP also increased by 0.3% on an unadjusted basis, and on a seasonally adjusted series, growth then exceeded 2%. Thus, during the year, the dynamics of the largest economy of South-Eastern Europe significantly worsened.
The main pressure on the economy in the first half of 2026 was exerted by trade, transport, the hotel and restaurant sector, industry, IT and telecommunications, as well as the real estate market. Trade, transport, warehousing, hotels and restaurants, which account for about 21.6% of GDP, reduced the volume of activity by 3.9% and made a negative contribution to GDP dynamics in the amount of 0.9 percentage points.
Industry, which accounts for about 16% of the economy, decreased by 2.9% and reduced the overall GDP indicator by another 0.5 percentage points. The information and communication sector decreased by 3.5%, real estate transactions by 4.5%.
Construction partially offset the decline. The volume of work in the sector increased by 12.3%, and its positive contribution to GDP was 0.7 pp.
Individual indicators confirm the weakness of the industrial sector: industrial production in Romania in January-June 2026 decreased by 3.3%, including the manufacturing industry by 4.4%.
The deterioration of GDP dynamics occurs against the background of large-scale budgetary consolidation and prolonged high inflation. The European Commission, in its spring forecast published on May 21, expected the growth of the Romanian economy in 2026 to be only 0.1% after 0.7% in 2025. In 2027, Brussels predicts an acceleration of growth to 2.3%.
According to the European Commission, the slowdown is primarily related to the reduction of real disposable incomes and consumption against the background of budget consolidation and high inflation. Sirinflation in Romania in 2026 is forecast at 7%, and the state budget deficit should decrease from 7.9% of GDP in 2025 to 6.2% of GDP this year. The economy should be supported by investment projects, in particular those financed by EU funds, as well as net exports.

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