The Parliament of Hungary elected the former head of the Supreme Court András Baku as the country's new president, which became another important stage in the restructuring of the Hungarian political system after the end of the 16-year period of Viktor Orbán's rule.
On August 11, 140 deputies voted for the candidacy of the 73-year-old lawyer, six opposed. Representatives of the opposition Fidesz did not participate in the vote, protesting against the early termination of the powers of the previous president, Tamas Shuyok. Baka should officially take office on August 19.
Baka's election has primarily political and institutional significance. The President of Hungary does not lead the government and does not determine the country's economic or foreign policy, but can play the role of a constitutional counterweight to the parliamentary majority and the cabinet. This function becomes especially important now that the party of Prime Minister Peter Magyar Tisza has a constitutional majority in the parliament and is carrying out large-scale changes to the institutions formed under Orbán.
Baka fits well into this political structure. From 1991 to 2008, he was a judge of the European Court of Human Rights, and in 2009, the parliament elected him the head of the Supreme Court of Hungary. His mandate was terminated early in 2012 after he publicly criticized Orbán's government's judicial reforms. The European Court of Human Rights later found a violation of his right to access to court and freedom of expression.
Therefore, Baka's return to one of the highest public positions after almost 15 years has a distinctly symbolic meaning. It demonstrates the intention of the new government to distance itself from the institutional model of the Orbán era and at the same time make the independence of the judicial system one of the central themes of political transformation.
“For Hungarian society, this is much more than a simple change of president. After sixteen years of dominance by one political force, any large-scale restructuring of state institutions is inevitably perceived differently by society. For supporters of change, this is an opportunity to restore the system of checks and balances, and for a large part of Fidesz supporters, what is happening may look like a political revenge of the new government," says Oleksandr Pozniy, an expert of the analytical center Experts Club, co-founder and director of the research company Active Group.
According to Pozniy, the key test will be the ability of the new institutions to demonstrate real independence from the government of Peter Magyar.
"Baka's main task is not to become the president of the winning party. If the new head of state can really distance himself from the government and act as an arbiter between different political groups, it will be an important signal to society. Otherwise, Hungary risks getting not the dismantling of the previous model of concentration of power, but simply a change in the political force that controls this model," Pozniy notes.
The sociologist also draws attention to the high political polarization of Hungarian society. In such a situation, the importance of the presidential position is determined not so much by the amount of formal powers, but by the trust of various population groups in the head of state.
"In countries with strong political polarization, symbolic institutions can be much more important than it seems from the text of the constitution. The president may not manage the economy or foreign policy, but he is able to either reduce the level of conflict in society, or, on the contrary, become another participant in this conflict. Therefore, for Baka, the main indicator of success will not be the number of blocked laws, but whether he will be able to be perceived as the president of all Hungarians," emphasized Pozniy.
Baka himself said after his election that the system of checks and balances actually stopped working under the previous government, but he emphasized that political changes should not turn into revenge against supporters of the former government. He also stated his intention to represent citizens with different political views.
Hungary is a parliamentary republic, so the real center of executive power is not in the presidential palace, but in the government.
According to the Basic Law of Hungary, the president is the head of state, personifies the unity of the nation and must monitor the democratic functioning of state institutions. At the same time, the president does not have his own executive power and does not manage ministries.
However, his powers are wider than purely ceremonial. The president signs the laws adopted by the parliament, and before signing, he can return the law to the deputies once for reconsideration. If he considers the document to be contrary to the Basic Law, he can refer it to the Constitutional Court.
After the parliamentary elections, the president proposes to the parliament the candidacy of the prime minister. He also formally appoints ministers at the proposal of the head of government, performs a number of personnel and representative functions and represents the Hungarian state in foreign relations.
Thus, the head of state is able to slow down certain decisions of the parliamentary majority or initiate their constitutional review, but he cannot independently determine the political course of the country.
The prime minister, on the other hand, is the de facto head of the executive branch. The government is the main body of executive power and public administration, and the prime minister determines its general political course. It is the prime minister who forms the government team, manages the work of the cabinet and, through the parliamentary majority, makes the main budget, economic, social and foreign policy decisions.
That is why the key political figure in Hungary remains Peter Magyar, who came to power after the victory of Tisza in the April parliamentary elections. The party won two-thirds of the seats in parliament, ending Orbán's 16-year period of uninterrupted rule.
After coming to power, Magyar began to push for a change in the heads of a number of state institutions linked to the previous system of government. One of the most notable episodes was the early termination of the mandate of President Tamas Šuyok.
For the new government, the election of Baka is particularly symbolic because of his long-standing conflict with the Orbán system. The former head of the Supreme Court is actually returning to higher state politics already after the defeat of the political force under which he lost his judicial position.
At the same time, this is where one of the main risks of the new Hungarian political system arises. Tisza has a constitutional majority, and therefore has exceptionally wide opportunities to change laws and institutions. Therefore, the new government must simultaneously dismantle the mechanisms created under Orbán and prove that it does not replace them with its own party control.
This is the paradox of the new Hungarian structure: Magyar gained an extremely strong position thanks to the parliamentary majority, while Baka should represent the limits of excessive concentration of power.
For the Ukrainian audience, the Hungarian transformation also has foreign policy significance. After Orbán's defeat, Budapest's position towards Ukraine became less confrontational, although Magyar does not position himself as an unconditional supporter of Kyiv and continues to connect some bilateral issues with the situation of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.
Therefore, the final criterion for the change of the political era in Hungary will be not only the departure of Orbán's cadres, but also whether the new government will manage to form a system of institutions that will be able to function regardless of which party controls parliament and government.
