Net migration to Germany will decrease to 235,000 in 2025 compared to 663,000 in 2023, according to a study by the German Economic Institute IW published on July 28, 2026. With the exception of the pandemic period, this is the lowest figure since 2010. Experts attribute the decrease to several processes at once: a reduction in the number of refugees, the departure of workers from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, a decrease in migration from the Western Balkans, and an increase in the emigration of citizens of Germany itself.
The largest net influx from one country in 2025 was provided by citizens of Ukraine — 89,000 people. A year earlier, the figure was 116,000. Ukrainians have a special status, as they are accepted in Germany mainly under the EU temporary protection mechanism, and not through the standard asylum procedure. Further dynamics will depend primarily on the development of the war and the conditions of stay of Ukrainians in Germany.
At the end of 2025, about 1.41 million citizens of Ukraine were registered in the Central Register of Foreigners of Germany. They became the second largest foreign group after Turkish citizens.
The number of initial applications for asylum decreased from 329,000 in 2023 to 113,000 in 2025.
The flow from Syria decreased particularly sharply: the number of initial applications decreased from 103,000 to 23,000. During the same period, the number of applicants from Afghanistan decreased from 51,000 to 24,000, and from Turkey - from 61,000 to 12,000.
According to the results of 2025, the largest groups of people registered in Germany as being in need of protection remained the citizens of Ukraine - about 1.164 million, Syria - 669,000, and Afghanistan - 321,000.
IW associates the decrease in the Syrian migration, primarily with the change in the situation in Syria after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in 2024, as well as with the strengthening of the migration policy of Germany and the EU.
Another important change was the reversal of migration from the new EU member states.
In 2023, Germany received a net influx of about 42 thousand citizens of these states. In 2024, 35,000 more people left Germany than arrived, and in 2025 the net outflow reached 45,000 people.
This group includes, in particular, citizens of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Croatia and other states that have joined the EU since 2004. Economists explain the return of migrants to the narrowing of the gap in wages and living standards, the growing demand for workers in their own countries, and the general aging of the population of Central and Eastern Europe.
At the end of 2025, about 904,000 Romanian citizens and 840,000 Polish citizens were registered in Germany. During the year, the number of Polish citizens decreased by approximately 25,000, and the total number of EU citizens decreased by 75,000.
Citizens of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia have been actively involved in the German labor market in recent years, in particular under special rules for the Western Balkans. However, since 2022, their net migration has been consistently decreasing. In 2025, it amounted to about 39,000 people. IW warns that opportunities to further attract workers from the Balkans are also limited: the population of most countries in the region is shrinking, and their own labor markets are facing shortages.
Against the background of the general decline, there are opposite trends. The net migration of Vietnamese citizens increased from 10,000 people in 2023 to 19,000 in 2025.
At the same time, the number of residence permits issued to citizens of countries outside Europe for work activities increased by 33,000 or 13.6% in 2023-2025. The number of study-related permits also increased by 33,000, or by 15.3%. Thus, the inflow of students and skilled workers is decreasing much more slowly than humanitarian and intra-European migration.
The net outflow of German citizens increased from 74,000 people in 2023 to 97,000 in 2025. IW notes that negative migration of German citizens is observed regularly. However, an increase of about 30% in two years can be an alarming signal, especially if qualified professionals leave the country.
At the same time, part of the statistics may be due to previously naturalized migrants who, after obtaining German citizenship, return to their countries of origin. It is difficult to accurately assess the structure of this outflow, since for many people who leave, the final country of destination is not fixed.
According to the Central Register of Foreigners, by the end of 2025, about 14.07 million foreign citizens lived in Germany.
The largest groups were:
citizens of Turkey - 1.52 million;
Ukraine - 1.34 million;
Syria — 936 thousand;
Romania — 904 thousand;
Poland — 840 thousand.
About 5 million foreigners, or 35%, were citizens of EU countries. Another 4.6 million had the citizenship of other European states, and about 4.5 million represented the countries of Asia, Africa, America and other regions.
If we take into account not only foreign citizens, but also migrants who received German citizenship and their direct descendants, in Germany in 2025 there were about 21.8 million people with an immigration history - 26.3% of the population. The largest groups by country of birth were those from Poland and Turkey — about 1.5 million each, Ukraine — 1.3 million, Russia and Syria — about 1 million each.
The reduction in migration is happening at the same time as the mass retirement of the baby boomer generation. According to a separate IW forecast, by 2036 the gap between older workers leaving the labor market and young people entering working age could reach 4.3 million people. Economists consider a return to the mass influx of workers from Eastern Europe unlikely. Germany will be forced to more actively attract specialists and workers with medium and lower formal qualifications from Asia, Africa, Latin America and other regions.
IW proposes to speed up visa procedures, reduce the tax and social burden on workers and expand simplified labor migration mechanisms for new countries, similar to the current rules for the Western Balkans. Thus, it is not about a complete cessation of migration, but about changing its structure. Germany is accepting fewer refugees and workers from neighboring European countries, while the economy's need for foreign workers due to an aging population continues to grow.
