The global copper industry will need about $332 billion in new investment in mining projects by 2050 to prevent a large-scale shortage of the metal, which could reach 20 million tons per year, or 44% of projected demand. This is stated in the study Transition Metals Outlook 2026 by the analytical company BloombergNEF (BNEF), published on October 20, 2026.
According to the forecast, the global copper market may face a deficit as early as 2028, as the expansion of mining capacity lags behind the growth of consumption. The main factors in the increase in demand will be the electrification of transport, the modernization of energy networks, the development of industry and the construction of infrastructure.
BNEF analysts expect that by 2050, global copper consumption will increase by 61% compared to 2026 and reach almost 46 million tons.
At the same time, the demand for copper associated with the electrification of the economy will increase by 89%, up to 23.3 million tons. Thus, these directions will account for more than half of the world's metal consumption.
Electric transport will be the fastest growing segment. The use of copper in electric cars, electric trucks, buses and related infrastructure will increase by 244% to 11.4 million tons by mid-century.
Copper is needed to make electric motors, inverters, batteries, high-voltage wiring and charging stations. In addition, the metal is widely used in construction, industrial equipment, electrical networks and consumer electronics.
According to BloombergNEF estimates, the available global reserves of copper ores are sufficient to meet long-term needs, but the problem lies in the insufficient pace of development of new deposits and expansion of existing enterprises.
The average term from the start of project development to the commissioning of a new copper mine is about 17 years. As a result, even with the necessary investment of $332 billion, the shortage of the metal may persist at least until 2043.
Additional difficulties are created by the decrease in copper content in mined ore, the increase in the cost of production and insufficient funding for geological exploration in previous years.
Without new capital investments, the world supply of copper may decrease by 14.5% - from 30 million tons in 2026 to 25.7 million tons in 2050. The development of copper scrap processing will partially compensate for the decline in primary production, but will not be able to completely eliminate the projected deficit.
Chile will retain its status as the largest producer of primary copper, according to BloombergNEF. However, the country's production may decline from 5.8 million tons in 2026 to 4.8 million tons in 2050.
Despite the decrease in absolute production volumes, Chile's share of global primary production may increase from 24% to 28%, as the decline in other countries will be more significant.
Analysts warn that a prolonged shortage of copper can lead to an increase in world prices, an increase in the cost of energy equipment, electric transport and infrastructure projects. In certain segments, manufacturers may be forced to more actively use alternative materials.
BloombergNEF head of metals and mining industry research, Martin Tengler, noted that the situation with the supply of raw materials to the world economy has changed significantly compared to previous forecasts.
According to him, the development of new production capacities and the improvement of battery technologies have reduced the risks of shortages of most metals of the energy transition. However, the main challenge is ensuring the availability of the necessary materials in specific regions and at the right time.
At the same time, copper remains the main exception to the general trend of improving forecasts.
According to the Transition Metals Outlook 2026, nine out of ten metals and materials studied can potentially be provided with sufficient production capacity by 2050, provided that investment continues and depleting ones are replaced reserves.
In particular, global lithium consumption is expected to nearly triple from 1.6 million to 4.8 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and demand for graphite will more than double from 3.3 million to 6.9 million tons.
At the same time, the spread of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries reduces the expected demand for nickel and cobalt compared to previous forecasts.
China continues to dominate in the processing of metals of the energy transition. According to BloombergNEF, for eight out of ten materials studied, more than half of the world's processing capacity is concentrated in one country, and for seven materials such a country is China. href="https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BmdmwSs36WE">an overview of the world's largest copper producing countries and a comparison of production from 1971 to 2025.
