The U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised the forecast for the transition stocks of wheat and feed grain in Ukraine at the end of the 2026/27 season — to a total of almost 12 million tons.
In the July USDA forecast, the transition stocks of these two groups were estimated at about 6.26 million tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure increased to 11.93 million tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million tons, or about 91%.
The most significant revision was the situation with corn.
The USDA increased the forecast of its transitional stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million tons, that is, more than 2.3 times. This is an increase of 2.8 million tons.
The reason is almost entirely explained by the change of two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million tons to 31.8 million tons, while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million tons to 22 million tons. Domestic corn consumption was left unchanged by the USDA at 7.2 million tons.
For wheat, carryover stocks increased even more in percentage terms, from 2.53 million to 4.8 million tons, or about 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was increased from 3.73 million to 7.13 million tons.
USDA attributes the deterioration of export prospects with logistical disruptions due to the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even tougher scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv representative office of the Foreign Agricultural Service USDA. It expects that if problems with sea logistics persist, temporary stocks of all grain crops in Ukraine may approach 25 million tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million tons, but certified grain warehouses provide about 23 million tons of capacity. The Ukrainian authorities also assumed the need for an additional 10-12 million tons of temporary storage capacity in case of prolonged destabilization of exports through the Black Sea.
The problem has direct economic significance for farmers. With a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which may put pressure on domestic purchase prices and at the same time increase storage costs and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with ports remains difficult: Russian attacks continue to affect Ukrainian port infrastructure, in particular in the Danube direction.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the season 2026/27 becomes more than just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on sea exports are maintained, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of tons of additional grain inside the country.
