Experts Club Analytical Center assesses the situation in the warehouse real estate market of Ukraine in 2026 as a phase of transition from post-shock recovery to a new cycle of growth, in which the main limitation is not demand, but a shortage of quality space, high construction costs and security risks.
After a sharp decline in 2022, when a large part of the warehouse infrastructure of the Kyiv region was damaged or destroyed, the market gradually resumed activity in 2023-2025 years. The most noticeable revival took place in the Kyiv region and in the west of Ukraine, primarily in the Lviv region.
According to the results of 2025, the Kyiv warehouse market demonstrated the highest activity over the last decade. Gross absorption of warehouse space reached about 217,000 square meters. m, which is 30% more than a year earlier. The volume of new input was about 216,000 square meters. m, and the total supply actually returned to the pre-war level - about 1.57 million square meters. m.
Vacancy on the Kyiv market remained very low - about 3.5%. This means that despite the introduction of a significant amount of new areas, the market quickly absorbs them. For tenants, this creates a problem of finding large quality lots, especially more than 5-10 thousand square meters. m. For developers and property owners, on the contrary, this creates conditions for a gradual increase in rates and the launch of new projects.
In 2026, the Experts Club expects a more balanced dynamic. After the record year of 2025, the volume of new construction in the Kyiv region may drop to approximately 90,000 square meters. m. This means that supply growth will be significantly lower than last year, while demand from key tenant groups will remain.
The main drivers of demand remain retail, e-commerce, 3PL operators, the pharmaceutical sector, distributors, FMCG companies and businesses that are rebuilding logistics for wartime conditions. In the structure of demand, the role of companies that need not just "dry warehouses", but modern class A and B facilities with energy efficiency, autonomy, better security, dock infrastructure, the possibility of temperature control and adaptation to pharmaceutical or food standards, is growing.
Rental rates remain stable. In the Kyiv region, the prime rate in 2025 was about $5.3 per square meter. m per month without VAT and operating costs, which corresponds to the pre-war peak level. In hryvnia equivalent, rates for dry warehouses increased by approximately 9% since the beginning of the year and were in the range of UAH 200-250 per square meter. m per month. In 2026, a further moderate increase in rates is likely, especially in the segment of quality objects with scarce characteristics.
The Lviv region remains the second key center for the development of warehouse real estate. Its advantages are relative safety, proximity to the border with the EU, the role of a western logistics hub, demand from relocated businessesEU, e-commerce, retail and international operators. Average rates in the Lviv region for class A and B warehouses in 2025 were approximately $5-5.5 per square meter. m per month, and according to some estimates - $6-6.5 in quality objects.
At the same time, a local increase in vacancy is already noticeable in the Lviv region due to the introduction of new lines of warehouse complexes. This does not mean oversaturation, but indicates a gradual transition of the market to a more competitive phase. The most promising directions remain the directions to the Polish border, the route towards Kyiv, as well as the zone of future industrial parks.
For the central regions, in particular the Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil regions, demand is formed primarily by agricultural companies, local manufacturers, distributors and businesses that seek to place warehouses closer to the domestic consumer. These regions are inferior to Kyiv and Lviv in terms of liquidity, but have the potential for the development of class B warehouses, agro-logistics, production-warehouse complexes and regional distribution.
Eastern and frontline regions remain the most risky. There, demand mostly remains for temporary or substandard warehouse space, but investment activity is limited by security factors. Dnipro retains the importance of a large industrial and logistics hub, but projects there are valued by investors with a higher risk premium.
The key trend in 2026 is the strengthening of demand for specialized formats. These are multi-temperature warehouses, pharmaceutical warehouses, food logistics, e-commerce facilities, last-mile logistics near large cities, as well as build-to-suit projects for a specific tenant. In such formats, the supply deficit is most noticeable.
A separate factor is energy sustainability. After attacks on the power system, tenants increasingly evaluate warehouses not only by location and rate, but also by the availability of generators, alternative energy sources, quality engineering, the possibility of backup power, fire safety and stable operation in conditions of disruptions.
Investment interest in warehouse real estate is recovering, but remains selective. The most attractive assets are finished or almost finished Class A warehouses in the Kyiv and Lviv regions, as well as projects with reliable tenants and long-term contracts. For an investor, the key issue is not only yield, but also asset liquidity, tenant quality, location security, and cost of completion.
The current market yield of quality warehouse assets in Ukraine may remain higher than in most EU countries due to the military risk premium. However, it is this premium that is the main limitation for the widespread inflow of institutional capital. Foreign investors are interested in the segment, but mostly take a wait-and-see position or consider partnerships with local players.
For developers, 2026 will be difficult due to the high cost of construction. Rising costs of materials, energy, logistics, insurance, financing and construction work limit the launch of new projects, especially without a prior contract with a tenant. Therefore, the share of speculative construction will remain limited, and build-to-suit and phased development will be more popular models.
Main market risks in 2026:
security threats and the risk of infrastructure damage;
shortage of high-quality land plots near key transport corridors;
high cost of construction and financing;
currency risks with hryvnia rents payments;
lack of large ready-made lots;
limited access to long-term capital;
unstable energy supply;
wariness of foreign investors.
At the same time, fundamental demand for warehouse real estate remains strong. The Ukrainian market is still structurally under-provided with high-quality logistics space compared to the Center countriesof Europe. The war accelerated the change in logistics: businesses need more flexible warehouses, closer to the consumer, with better engineering, autonomy and the ability to quickly change supply chains.
According to the base scenario of the Experts Club, in 2026 the warehouse real estate market of Ukraine will maintain a moderate increase in rental rates, low vacancy in the Kyiv region, activity in the Lviv region and a gradual expansion of quality supply in the central regions. The greatest demand will be for class A objects, multi-temperature warehouses, pharmaceutical logistics, last-mile warehouses and build-to-suit projects.
The optimistic scenario foresees a more active return of foreign capital, the launch of new industrial parks and the acceleration of construction in the west and in the center of Ukraine. The negative scenario is associated with increased security risks, new damage to the logistics infrastructure, an increase in the cost of financing and a decrease in investment activity.
Experts Club conclusion: warehouse real estate remains one of the most stable segments of commercial real estate in Ukraine. In 2026, this market no longer looks like a crisis, but it is not yet fully normalized. Its main characteristic is a shortage of quality supply while maintaining real demand from retail, logistics, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals and distribution.
For developers, this means the opportunity to launch new projects under the condition of clear work with tenants. For investors, this is a chance to enter a segment with a higher yield, but with increased risk. For tenants, it is necessary to plan warehouse needs in advance, as it is becoming more and more difficult to find a high-quality large warehouse "here and now" in Ukraine.
