As reported by Open4business, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the July WASDE report raised the forecast for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year year to 24 million tons from 23.5 million tons expected a month earlier.
According to the WASDE report, approved on July 10, 2026, the forecast for world wheat production in 2026/27 MR has practically not changed and is 819.97 million tons against 820.06 million tons in June. At the same time, the USDA notes that the wheat production forecast was increased for Russia and Ukraine due to favorable conditions for winter wheat.
The USDA increased the Ukrainian wheat export forecast to 14.5 million tons from the 14 million tons forecast a month earlier. According to the report, world wheat exports in FY 2026/27 increased to 213.1 million tons due to increased supplies from Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine, which more than compensated for the decrease in the export forecast for Canada.
In the WASDE tables for FY 2025/26, wheat production in Ukraine is estimated at 24.1 million tons, exports at 14 million tons. In 2024/25, Ukraine, according to the USDA, produced 23.4 million tons of wheat and exported 15.75 million tons.
The revision of the Ukrainian forecast is taking place against the background of a more tense global balance. The USDA lowered its forecast for world wheat ending stocks in FY 2026/27 to 272.8 million tons, down 2.6 million tons from the June estimate. At the same time, the forecast of world consumption was increased to 826.2 million tons.
The Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine previously forecast the grain harvest in 2026 at the level of about 60.4 million tons, including wheat — about 22.4 million tons, barley — about 4.7 million tons, and corn — about 31.6 million tons.
According to the State Statistics Service, in 2025, wheat harvest in Ukraine increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, corn by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while barley production decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons. will depend not only on the harvest, but also on the operation of the sea corridor, logistics across the Danube and the western borders, ship insurance and the security situation of the port infrastructure.
