Lisbon entered the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index for the first time and immediately found itself in the category of cities with an increased risk of a price "bubble" in the housing market.
The index of the Portuguese capital in 2026 was 1.04, according to a UBS study published on September 22. Indicators between 1.0 and 1.5 are categorized as elevated risk by the bank.
Over the past decade, real housing prices in Lisbon have grown by an average of almost 7% each year — the highest rate among all 23 cities included in the study.
From mid-2025 alone, inflation-adjusted home prices have risen by another 10%.
UBS links the long-term rise of the market, in particular, to the policy of attracting foreign investments and new residents.
However, analysts note that the factors that previously supported growth are gradually weakening. Lisbon has become one of the least affordable housing markets in Europe, rental growth has stalled, and demand is beginning to shift to more affordable areas outside the city.
An additional factor cited by UBS is Portugal's transition to a more selective migration policy.
In terms of risk, Lisbon now ranks right after Zurich, Tokyo, Miami, Dubai, Seoul and Geneva. At the same time, it is ahead of Amsterdam, Madrid, Frankfurt, Munich, Paris and London.
The study does not mean that UBS predicts a fall in prices in Lisbon. The index indicates the accumulation of imbalances between the value of real estate, household incomes, rental rates, credit volumes and other fundamental indicators.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
