Global grain production in 2026 may reach one of the highest levels in history, however international trade is decreasing due to logistics constraints, including shipping problems in the Black Sea. To ensure global food security, it is crucial not only the volume of produced goods but also the possibility of their timely transportation to consumers at an acceptable price, reports SEEDS referring to the analysis of international expert Kateryna Zvereva.
According to the latest estimates of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global grain production in 2026 is projected at 2.979 billion tons. This is the second-highest level in history. Meanwhile, the volume of international grain trade, according to the forecast, will decrease by 3.5% – to 505.8 million tons.
Among the main factors of trade reduction, FAO names difficulties with shipping in the Black Sea and insufficient capacity of alternative transport corridors. As a result, even with high production volumes, some regions may face supply disruptions and increased cost of imported food.
As noted by the international expert in strategic communications in the agro-food sector, sustainable development and food systems Kateryna Zvereva in an article for the Italian publication Agricultura.it, risks to food security are not necessarily related to a physical deficit of grain. A significant role is played by the availability of transport routes, delivery speed and logistics costs.
The situation in Ukraine is particularly indicative in this context, where grain exports remain dependent on security conditions, the operation of port infrastructure and the possibilities of alternative routes.
According to the data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine, as of 16 October from the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year, the country has exported 5.929 million tons of grains and legumes. This is 24.9% less than for the same period of the previous season.
At the same time, the dynamics of exports of individual crops differ significantly. In particular, wheat supplies have decreased by 40.5%, while corn exports have increased by approximately 80%. Such a difference indicates the unequal impact of logistics and market factors on individual segments of the grain market.
The structure of transport routes has also changed. According to the European Commission, in September 2026 about 90% of Ukrainian grain, oilseed and related product exports were made through the Solidarity Lanes between Ukraine and the EU. At the same time, approximately 10% of cargo went through Black Sea ports.
Rail, road and river transport enable the maintenance of exports even under constraints of maritime logistics. However, their capacity remains an important factor determining the volumes, timelines and cost of agricultural product supply.
Logistical difficulties also affect global food prices. According to FAO data, in September the food price index rose by 1.5% compared to August and by 5.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the cereal price sub-index increased by 5.1% month-on-month and by 17.2% compared to September 2025.
In particular, global wheat prices rose by 6.3% over the month. Reasons include restrictions on transport links in the Black Sea region and dry weather conditions in some areas of North America. Corn prices increased by 5.6% amid expectations of US yields and reduced export supply from Brazil.
According to Zvereva's estimate, delays in product transportation create risks not only for international trade but also for the financial stability of agricultural enterprises. Increased delivery times and transport costs affect farmers' working capital, financing capabilities for current operations and investments in future production cycles.
Meanwhile, high global harvests and reduced trade do not automatically mean the emergence of a global food crisis. However, the current situation demonstrates the dependence of food markets on transport infrastructure and the stability of international supply chains.
Thus, ensuring global food security increasingly depends on countries' ability to maintain stable logistics routes, diversify transport corridors and reduce food delivery costs.
Kateryna Zvereva is an international expert in strategic communications in the agri-food sector, sustainable development and food systems. She has collaborated with FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Founder of Sapienza.media.
