In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 1 million metric tons compared to the October estimate—to 11.5 million metric tons— while simultaneously raising its harvest forecast by 500,000 metric tons to 26.5 million metric tons.
According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on November 10, the previous estimate for Ukrainian wheat exports was 12.5 million metric tons, and for production, 26 million metric tons.
Thus, U.S. analysts expect an increase in wheat production in Ukraine but forecast a reduction in its export capacity to foreign markets.
The USDA attributes the revision of the export forecast to restrictions on maritime transport in the Black Sea region resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine.
According to the agency’s assessment, wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia remain below long-term averages, despite the use of alternative ports and transport routes.
Against the backdrop of reduced export projections and an upward revision of the harvest estimate, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat ending stocks at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year from 6.1 million to 7.3 million metric tons.
By comparison, wheat stocks in Ukraine were estimated at only 2 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year.
At the same time, U.S. experts raised their forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat from 9.5 million to 9.8 million metric tons, including feed use, which was increased from 4.5 million to 4.8 million metric tons.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year by 310,000 metric tons to 208.66 million metric tons.
The reduction in projected exports from Ukraine and Russia is partially offset by increased shipments from Australia and Argentina.
Specifically, the forecast for Russian wheat exports was lowered by 1 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons. At the same time, the forecast for Australia was raised to 24.5 million metric tons, and for Argentina to 16.5 million metric tons.
The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production to 827.51 million metric tons and for ending stocks to 280.82 million metric tons.
The marketing year for wheat in Ukraine runs from July to June of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 19 (PDF).
